On 17th March 2011, Professor Frederic Mishkin presented his paper 'Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis'.

Abstract: This paper examines what we have learned and how we should change our thinking about monetary policy strategy in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It starts with a discussion of where the science of monetary policy was before the crisis and how central banks viewed monetary policy strategy. It will then examine how the crisis has changed the thinking of both macro/monetary economists and central bankers. Finally, it looks how much of the science of monetary policy needs to be altered and draws implications for monetary policy strategy. [paper]

Frederic S. Mishkin is the Alfred Lerner Professor of Banking and Financial Institutions at the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and from September 2006 to August 2008 was a member (governor) of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He has also been a Senior Fellow at the FDIC Center for Banking Research, and past President of the Eastern Economic Association. Since receiving his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1976, he has taught at the University of Chicago, Northwestern University, Princeton University and Columbia. He has also received an honorary professorship from the Peoples (Renmin) University of China. From 1994 to 1997 he was Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and an associate economist of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System.

Professor Mishkin's research focuses on monetary policy and its impact on financial markets and the aggregate economy. He is the author of several bestselling books, has published over one hundred and fifty articles in professional journals and books, and holds editorial duties at a number of top academic journals.

On 4th May 2011, Dr John Lee presented his work on 'China's Dangerous One-Speed Economy'.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has pledged to sacrifice overall growth in order to rebalance and restructure the Chinese economy. The Premier has delivered similar messages since 2005 while Chinese economists have been warning of serious imbalances in the model for over a decade. Although a boon for commodity exporters such as Australia, the Chinese economy has become dangerously reliant on unsustainable increases in fixed-investment to drive growth – resulting in serious risks such as the rise of a property bubble.

In the words of Premier Wen, the Chinese economy is “unstable, unsustainable and uncoordinated.” Dr. John Lee looks at whether this is correct, and why slowing growth and restructuring the Chinese model is so difficult.

Dr. John Lee is a research fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney and the Hudson Institute in Washington DC. The author of Will China Fail?, he has published in over fifty major newspapers and journals in the world, been invited to testify and share his research with US Congressional Senate and House Committees, and briefed officials and elected leaders at the Ministerial and Secretarial levels in the US, Australia, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. He received his doctorate from Oxford University.

On 15th June 2011, Professor David Hensher presented a seminar, asking 'Should Motorists Pay for the Congestion they Cause?'

Roads are possibly the most underpriced in terms of user contributions of all the public assets that we avail ourselves of. Regardless of whether some believe that governments should provide more road capacity to combat traffic congestion, it is an undeniable fact that if we provide more capacity under the existing road user pricing regimes (registration and fuel pricing only), then more cars will use the roads, quickly using up the additional capacity. The great sadness about all of this is that there is a presumption that we all have rights to enter the traffic and delay all other motorists, yet not contribute to the true cost associated with delay and lost time – the curse of congestion. This results in a predictable 'tragedy of the commons'. This talk is part of an ongoing conversation to discuss replacing fixed charges with car use related charges, with congestion charging regimes included as one part of a future variable user charging policy.

The presentation is available here (PDF).

David Hensher is Professor of Management, and Founding Director of the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS): The Australian Key Centre of Teaching and Research in Transport Management in the Business School at The University of Sydney. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia (FASSA) and has won many awards. David is on the editorial boards of 10 of the leading transport journals. He has published over 450 papers in leading transport and economics journals and in many books.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 came close to destroying the financial systems of the US and Europe, not to mention the credibility of the economics profession. Yet, less than three years after the near-meltdown of the economy, it would be difficult for an observer to discern any signs that there had ever been a financial crisis. Indeed, while the crisis was created by financial speculation, the costs are being borne primarily by workers in the broader economy, and the policy responses have involved a renewed application of the public sector austerity measures traditionally favored by the financial sector. Similarly, the economics profession has continued to act as if the crisis had never occurred. Nevertheless, the lessons of the Global Financial Crisis are there to be learned, even if it takes a renewed crisis to drive them home.

John Quiggin is a Federation Fellow in Economics and Political Science at the University of Queensland. He is prominent both as a research economist and as a commentator on Australian economic policy. He has produced over 1000 publications, including five books and over 300 journal articles and book chapters, in fields including environmental economics, risk analysis, production economics, and the theory of economic growth. He has also written on policy topics including climate change, micro-economic reform, privatisation, employment policy and the management of the Murray-Darling river system. His full profile is available at http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/johnquiggin/.

        ·         When will private investment recover? And how strongly?

·         Will it come through in time to fill the gap left as government investment contracts?

·         Has the GFC moderated the cyclicality of commercial property markets, or has it set up the next boom?

·         Can residential markets recover in the face of rising interest rates? Or are the prophets of doom right?

·         What will be the impact of the resources boom? And what happens when it ends?

·         How will investment cycles play out?

·         What will be the impact on construction? And on the economy?

Frank Gelber is the Chief Economist at BIS Shrapnel. He has been for decades. Frank is a forecaster. He has forecast and tracked many cycles in his time. This is another of them. He talks about prospects for the economy and property markets. The focus is on the medium term rather than the short term. His objective is to understand whether activity is sustainable. In a cyclical environment, the task is to predict turning points & risk, to understand how markets will develop on the logic of the players, and how market logic will change as circumstances and perceptions evolve. The aim is to know how markets will change in plenty of time to prepare, to avoid mistakes and to position into opportunities.

On Thursday September 1, Professor Anis Chowdhury presented his paper: The debate on fiscal austerity: how robust is the evidence?

This talk critically examines the key empirical evidence that is assembled to support the fiscal consolidation argument. In particular, we review the evidence on the debt-growth relationship. We find that the negative relationship between debt and GDP growth is influenced by outliers or exceptionally high debt-GDP ratios. Furthermore, when there is a relationship, it appears to be non-linear – positive first and turning to negative at some point, but there is considerable variation in the estimated turning or “tipping” point, which is not helpful as a policy guide. We also briefly review the case of fiscal consolidation in the US (1995-2000), Denmark (1983-87) and Ireland (1987-89). We find that contrary to the claims of fiscal consolidationists, growth in these economies during the era of fiscal consolidation was the result of favourable exchange rate and interest policies, which, in turn, helped fiscal consolidation. A close scrutiny of the Danish-Irish cases also shows that both economies were helped by a favourable world economic environment. Thus, we find that the argument that fiscal consolidation is possible without adversely affecting growth is not based on robust empirical evidence.

Anis Chowdhury: Obtained Ph.D. in 1983 from the University of Manitoba, Canada. Professor of Economics, University of Western Sydney (Australia) since 2001. Co-authored 14 books and over 50 articles in leading journals. Joined UN-DESA as Senior Economic Affairs Officer in the Office of the Under Secretary General in October 2008. Supported the drafting of Report on the World Social Situation (RWSS 2010): Rethinking Poverty and Report on the World Social Situation (RWSS 2011): Social Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis. Regular contributor to voxeu.org (Development and Crisis debate). Founder Managing Editor of Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. Taught at the University of Manitoba, National University of Singapore, and the University of New England (Australia). Published extensively on East and Southeast Asia. Has been consultant to UNDP, ILO, the Commonwealth Secretariat, and the Islamic Development Bank. Visiting fellow at UNU-WIDER, Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Singapore). Team member preparing Indonesia National Human Development Report 2001: Towards a New Consensus: Democracy and Human Development in Indonesia and Indonesia National Human Development Report 2004: The Economics of Democracy: Financing Human Development in Indonesia.

On Wednesday 2 November, Professor Elizabeth Webster presented her talk: Does innovation enhance firm survival? (not always)

Although many companies compete through the development of new technologies and products, it is well known that innovation is inherently risky and therefore may increase the ex ante likelihood of both exceptional company performance and bankruptcy. Existing empirical studies however consistently find a positive relationship between innovative activity and company survival. We argue that this conclusion may be a result of a simple selection effect. Using a panel of almost 300,000 Australian companies, we use a hazard model to examine the relationship between innovation and company survival. As expected, we find that the degree of uncertainty embodied in different innovation proxies does shape the pattern of company survival.

Professor Beth Webster  is an economist and Director of the Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia (IPRIA) and Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (University of Melbourne). Her recent publications include ‘Patent infringement in Australia: Results from a survey’ Federal Law Review (with Kimberlee Weatherall); ‘Do patents matter for commercialization?’, Journal of Law and Economics 2011 (with Paul Jensen); and ‘Misclassification in Patent Offices’ Review of Economics and Statistics (with Alfons Palangkaraya and Paul Jensen). 

On Wednesday 7 December, Professor Tony Aspromourgos presented his paper: The General Theory After 75 Years: Keynes's Policy versus 'Keynesian' Policy. The paper is available here (PDF).